Новые зарождающиеся тренды тематической области «Общественное здоровье и здравоохранение», выявленные методами наукометрического анализа: 2024–2025 гг.

Введение. Технологическое развитие, меняющаяся структура потребления медицинских услуг, изменение глобального социально-экономического ландшафта становятся источниками и факторами, порождающими новые тренды развития глобального здравоохранения. Появление трендов на стадии их зарождения как трудноразличимый признак нового процесса принято называть слабыми сигналами. Их ранняя фиксация является особенно сложной задачей, для решения которой необходимо проведение комплексного наукометрического анализа, выполненного с использованием специальных аналитических приложений и инструментов. Цель исследования: выявление слабых сигналов о зарождающихся трендах в рамках тематической области «Общественное здоровье и здравоохранение» на основании анализа публикаций «горячего цитирования», «исследовательских горизонтов» и «фронтов исследований», зафиксированных в начале 2025 г. Материалы и методы. Выполнен комплексный наукометрический анализ, предполагающий использование трех методологических подходов к фиксации слабых сигналов: метода определения исследовательских фронтов (с использованием аналитического приложения к БД Web of Science – Essential Science Indicators), метода определения публикации «горячего цитирования» (Hot papers) и метода определения исследовательских горизонтов (с использованием аналитического приложения Research Horizon Navigator). Результаты. Выполнен комплексный наукометрический анализ, интегрирующий три методических подхода к выявлению слабых сигналов в тематической области «Общественного здоровья и здравоохранения». Из трех используемых методов фиксации слабых сигналов в качестве наиболее «чувствительного» инструмента можно выделить алгоритм «Исследовательские горизонты». Вместе с тем все три метода позволили идентифицировать приблизительно одинаковый перечень зарождающихся и устоявшихся трендов. Заключение. Статус «зарождающихся трендов» может быть присвоен следующим исследовательским направлениям: здоровье подростков, механизмы здорового старения, этические проблемы применения технологий ИИ и машинного обучения в системе здравоохранения, аккредитация организаций общественного здравоохранения, проблемы достижения справедливости в оказании медицинской помощи, новые подходы к использованию и анализу медицинских данных. 

1. GBD2021 Diseases and Injuries Collaborators (2024). Global incidence, prevalence, years lived with disability (YLDs), disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 371 diseases and injuries in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1990–2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021, Lancet, 403(10440), c. 2133–2161, DOI: 10.1016/S0140–6736 (24) 00757-8.

2. GBD2021 Causes of Death Collaborators (2024). Global burden of 288 causes of death and life expectancy decomposition in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1990–2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021, Lancet, 403(10440), p. 2100–2132, DOI: 10.1016/S0140–6736 (24) 00367-2.

3. Auer R. et al. (2024). Electronic Nicotine-Delivery Systems for Smoking Cessation, New England Journal of Medicine, 390(7), p. 601–610, DOI: 10.1056/NEJMoa2308815.

4. Jackson S.E., Tattan-Birch H., East K., Cox S., Shahab L. and Brown J. (2024). Trends in Harm Perceptions of E-Cigarettes vs Cigarettes Among Adults Who Smoke in England, 2014–2023, JAMA Network Open, 7(2), DOI: 10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2024.0582.

5. Tattan-Birch H., Brown J., Shahab L., Beard E. and Jackson S. E. (2024). Trends in vaping and smoking following the rise of disposable e-cigarettes: a repeat cross-sectional study in England between 2016 and 2023, Lancet Regional Health Europe, 42, DOI: 10.1016/j.lanepe.2024.100924.

6. Taylor J. et al. (2024). Interventions to suppress puberty in adolescents experiencing gender dysphoria or incongruence: a systematic review, Archives of Disease in Childhood, 109(Suppl. 2), p. s33-s47, DOI: 10.1136/archdischild-2023-326669.

7. Taylor J., Hall R., Heathcote C., Hewitt C. E., Langton T. and Fraser L. (2024). Clinical guidelines for children and adolescents experiencing gender dysphoria or incongruence: a systematic review of guideline quality (part 1), Archives of Disease in Childhood, 109(Suppl. 2), p. s65-s72, DOI: 10.1136/archdischild-2023–326499.

8. Taylor J., Hall R., Heathcote C., Hewitt C. E., Langton T. and Fraser L. (2024). Clinical guidelines for children and adolescents experiencing gender dysphoria or incongruence: a systematic review of recommendations (part 2), Archives of Disease in Childhood, 109(Suppl. 2), p. s73-s82, DOI: 10.1136/archdischild-2023–326500.

9. Aminizadeh S. et al. (2024). Opportunities and challenges of artificial intelligence and distributed systems to improve the quality of healthcare service, Artificial Intelligence in Medicine, 149, DOI: 10.1016/j.artmed.2024.102779.

10. Primavera D. et al. (2023). Does the Response to a Stressful Condition in Older Adults with Life Rhythm Dysregulations Provide Evidence of the Existence of the “Dysregulation of Mood, Energy, and Social Rhythms Syndrome”?, Healthcare (Basel), 12(1), DOI: 10.3390/healthcare12010087.

11. GBD2021 Fertility and Forecasting Collaborators (2024). Global fertility in 204 countries and territories, 1950– 2021, with forecasts to 2100: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021, Lancet, 403(10440), p. 2057–2099, DOI: 10.1016/ S0140-6736 (24) 00550-6.

12. Fauser B.C.J.M. et al. (2024). Declining global fertility rates and the implications for family planning and family building: an IFFS consensus document based on a narrative review of the literature, Human Reproduction Update, 30(2), p. 153–173, DOI: 10.1093/humupd/dmad028.

13. Mennella C., Maniscalco U., De Pietro G. and Esposito M. (2024). Ethical and regulatory challenges of AI technologies in healthcare: A narrative review, Heliyon, 10(4), DOI: 10.1016/j.heliyon.2024.e26297.

14. Garcia P. et al. (2024). Artificial Intelligence-Generated Draft Replies to Patient Inbox Messages, JAMA Network Open, 7(3), DOI: 10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2024.3201.

15. Tai-Seale M. et al. (2024). AI-Generated Draft Replies Integrated Into Health Records and Physicians’ Electronic Communication, JAMA Network Open, 7(4), DOI: 10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2024.6565.

16. Schumacher D.J., Kinnear B., Burk-Rafel J., Santen S. A. and Bullock J. L. (2024). The Next Era of Assessment: Can Ensuring High-Quality, Equitable Patient Care Be the Defining Characteristic?, Academic Medicine: Journal of the Association of American Medical Colleges, 99(4S Suppl 1), p. S7-S13, DOI: 10.1097/ACM.0000000000005603.

17. Kagesten A.E. et al. (2024). Exploring a Preliminary Set of Indicators to Measure Adolescent Health: Results From a 12-Country Feasibility Study, Journal of Adolescent Health, 74(6S), p. S66-S79, DOI: 10.1016/j. jadohealth.2024.01.017.

18. Marsh A.D. et al. (2024). Indicators to Measure Adolescent Health at the Country, Regional, and Global Levels: Results of a Five-Year Selection Process by the Global Action for the Measurement of Adolescent Health, Journal of Adolescent Health, 74(6S), p. S31-S46, DOI: 10.1016/j.jadohealth.2024.02.010.

19. Avery R.A.T. et al. (2025). Gendered attitudes towards pro-environmental change: The role of hegemonic masculinity endorsement, dominance and threat, British Journal of Social Psychology, 64(1), DOI: 10.1111/bjso.12834.

20. Richie C. (2023). “Green informed consent” in the classroom, clinic, and consultation room, Medicine, Health Care, and Philosophy, 26(4), p. 507–515, DOI: 10.1007/s11019-023-10163-x.

21. Echavarren J.M. (2023). The Gender Gap in Environmental Concern: Support for an Ecofeminist Perspective and the Role of Gender Egalitarian Attitudes, Sex Roles, 89, p. 610–623, DOI: 10.1007/s11199-023-01397-3.

22. Oberly T., Singh S. R., Bush Stevens A., Blair-Ackison R., Sheeran A. and Lang B. (2025). Perspectives on Public Health Department Accreditation: Lessons Learned From Ohio’s Accreditation Mandate, Journal of Public Health Management and Practice, 31(2), p. 165–172, DOI: 10.1097/PHH.0000000000002094.

23. Allen P. et al. (2025). Reaccreditation and Pathways Recognition Experiences of Small Local and Tribal Health Departments, Journal of Public Health Management and Practice, 31(2), c. 173–182, DOI: 10.1097/PHH. 0000000000002084.

24. Fifolt M. et al. (2025). Using National Public Health Accreditation to Explore Quality Improvement and Performance Management in Small Local Health Departments, Journal of Public Health Management and Practice, 31(2), p. 183–189, DOI: 10.1097/PHH.0000000000002062.

25. Menassa M. et al. (2023). Concepts and definitions of healthy ageing: a systematic review and synthesis of theoretical models, EClinicalMedicine, 56, DOI: 10.1016/j.eclinm.2022.101821.

26. Bone J.K., Bu F., Fluharty M. E., Paul E., Sonke J. K. and Fancourt D. (2022). Engagement in leisure activities and depression in older adults in the United States: Longitudinal evidence from the Health and Retirement Study, Social Science and Medicine, 294, DOI: 10.1016/j.socscimed.2022.114703.

27. Lee T. and Shi D. A comparison of full information maximum likelihood and multiple imputation in structural equation modeling with missing data, Psychological Methods, 26(4), c. 466–485, DOI: 10.1037/met0000381.

28. GBD2021 Risk Factors Collaborators (2024). Global burden and strength of evidence for 88 risk factors in 204 countries and 811 subnational locations, 1990–2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021, Lancet, 403(10440), p. 2162–2203, DOI: 10.1016/S0140-6736 (24) 00933-4.

29. Shin H. et al. (2023). Estimated prevalence and trends in smoking among adolescents in South Korea, 2005–2021: a nationwide serial study, World Journal of Pediatrics, 19(4), c. 366–377, DOI: 10.1007/s12519-022-00673-8.

30. Park S. et al. (2023). National trends in alcohol and substance use among adolescents from 2005 to 2021: a Korean serial cross-sectional study of one million adolescents, World Journal of Pediatrics, 19(11), p. 1071–1081, DOI: 10.1007/s12519-023-00715-9.

31. Lee J.S. et al. (2023). Breastfeeding and impact on childhood hospital admissions: a nationwide birth cohort in South Korea, Nature Communications, 14(1), DOI: 10.1038/s41467-023-41516-y.

32. Fernandez-de-Las-Peñas C. et al. (2024). Persistence of post-COVID symptoms in the general population two years after SARS-CoV 2 infection: A systematic review and meta-analysis, Journal of Infection, 88(2), p. 77–88, DOI: 10.1016/j.jinf.2023.12.004.

33. Rahmati et al. (2023). A systematic review and meta-analysis of long-term sequelae of COVID 19 2-year after SARS-CoV 2 infection: A call to action for neurological, physical, and psychological sciences, Journal of Medical Virology, 95(6), DOI: 10.1002/jmv.28852.

34. Lemhofer C. et al. (2023). Quality of life and ability to work of patients with Post-COVID syndrome in relation to the number of existing symptoms and the duration since infection up to 12 months: a cross-sectional study, Quality of Life Research, 32(7), p. 1991–2002, DOI: 10.1007/s11136-023-03369-2.

35. Liang J.H. et al. (2023). Whether weekend warrior activity and other leisure-time physical activity pattern reduce the risk of depression symptom in the representative adults? A population-based analysis of NHANES2007–2020, Journal of Affective Disorders, 340, p. 329–339, DOI: 10.1016/j.jad.2023.07.113.

36. Khurshid S., Al-Alusi M.A., Churchill T. W., Guseh J. S. and Ellinor P. T. (2023). Accelerometer-Derived “Weekend Warrior” Physical Activity and Incident Cardiovascular Disease, JAMA, 330(3), p. 247–252, DOI: 10.1001/jama.2023.10875.

37. Dos Santos M. et al. (2022). Association of the “Weekend Warrior” and Other Leisure-time Physical Activity Patterns With All-Cause and Cause-Specific Mortality: A Nationwide Cohort Study, JAMA Internal Medicine, 182(8), c. 840–848, DOI: 10.1001/jamainternmed.2022.2488.

38. Morst D.F. et al. (2022). Global developments in social prescribing, BMJ Global Health, 7(5), DOI: 10.1136/bmjgh-2022-008524.

39. Muhl C., Mulligan K., Bayoumi I., Ashcroft R. and Godfrey C. Establishing internationally accepted conceptual and operational definitions of social prescribing through expert consensus: a Delphi study, BMJ Open, 13(7), DOI: 10.1136/bmjopen-2022-070184.

40. Haslam S.A. et al. (2024). Tackling loneliness together: A three-tier social identity framework for social prescribing, Group Processes & Intergroup Relations, 27(5), p. 1128–1150, DOI: 10.1177/13684302241242434.

41. Campos-Nonato I., Galván-Valencia Ó., Hernández-Barrera L., Oviedo-Solís C., Barquera S. (2023). Prevalencia de obesidad y factores de riesgo asociados en adultos mexicanos: resultados de la Ensanut 2022, Salud Publica de Mexico, 65, p. s238-s247, DOI: 10.21149/14809.

42. Basto-Abreu A. et al. (2023). Prevalencia de prediabetes y diabetes en México: Ensanut 2022, Salud Publica de Mexico, 65, p. s163-s168, DOI: 10.21149/14832.

43. Shamah-Levy T. et al. (2023). Prevalencias de sobrepeso y obesidad en población escolar y adolescente de México. Ensanut Continua 2020–2022. Salud Publica de Mexico, 65, c. s218-s224, DOI: 10.21149/14762.

44. Jin X. et al. (2021). Global burden of upper respiratory infections in 204 countries and territories, from 1990 to 2019, EClinicalMedicine, 37, DOI: 10.1016/j.eclinm.2021.100986.

45. Safiri S. et al. (2023). Global burden of lower respiratory infections during the last three decades. Frontiers in Public Health, 10, DOI: 10.3389/fpubh.2022.1028525.

46. GBD2019 LRI Collaborators (2022). Age-sex differences in the global burden of lower respiratory infections and risk factors, 1990–2019: results from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019, Lancet Infectious Diseases, 22(11), p. 1626–1647, DOI: 10.1016/S1473-3099 (22) 00510-2.

47. Maenner M.J. et al (2023). Prevalence and Characteristics of Autism Spectrum Disorder Among Children Aged 8 Years – Autism and Developmental Disabilities Monitoring Network, 11 Sites, United States, 2020, MMWR Surveillance Summaries, 72(2), p. 1–14, DOI: 10.15585/mmwr.ss7202a1.

48. Singh D. et al. (2023). Global estimates of incidence and mortality of cervical cancer in 2020: a baseline analysis of the WHO Global Cervical Cancer Elimination Initiative, Lancet Global Health, 11(2), p. e197-e206, DOI: 10.1016/S2214-109X(22)00501-0.

49. Wang Q., Zhang F. and Li R. (2023). Revisiting the environmental kuznets curve hypothesis in 208 counties: The roles of trade openness, human capital, renewable energy and natural resource rent, Environmental Research, 216(3), DOI: 10.1016/j.envres.2022.114637.

50. Cornelius M.E. et al. (2023). Tobacco Product Use Among Adults – United States, 2021, MMWR, 72(18), p. 475–483, DOI: 10.15585/mmwr.mm7218a1.

51. De Angelis L. et al. (2023). ChatGPT and the rise of large language models: the new AI-driven infodemic threat in public health, Frontiers in Public Health, 11, DOI: 10.3389/fpubh.2023.1166120.

52. Bridsey J. et al. (2023). Tobacco Product Use Among U. S. Middle and High School Students – National Youth Tobacco Survey, 2023, MMWR, 72(44), p. 1173–1182, DOI: 10.15585/mmwr.mm7244a1.

53. Lim D.C. et al. (2023). The need to promote sleep health in public health agendas across the globe, Lancet Public Health, 8(10), p. e820-e826, DOI: 10.1016/S2468-2667 (23) 00182-2.

54. Strain T. et al. (2024). National, regional, and global trends in insufficient physical activity among adults from 2000 to 2022: a pooled analysis of 507 population-based surveys with 5·7 million participants, Lancet Global Health, 12(8), p. e1232-e1243, DOI: 10.1016/S2214-109X(24)00150-5.

55. Bundy J.D. et al. (2023). Social determinants of health and premature death among adults in the USA from 1999 to 2018: a national cohort study, Lancet Public Health, 8(6), c. e422-e431, DOI: 10.1016/S2468-2667(23)00081-6.

56. Barjaková M., Garnero A. and d’Hombres B. (2023). Risk factors for loneliness: A literature review, Social Science and Medicine, 334, DOI: 10.1016/j.socscimed.2023.116163.

57. You Y., Mo L., Tong J., Chen X. and You Y. (2024). The role of education attainment on 24-hour movement behavior in emerging adults: evidence from a populationbased study, Frontiers Public Health, 12, DOI: 10.3389/fpubh.2024.1197150.

58. Lansing A.E. et al. (2023). Building trust: Leadership reflections on community empowerment and engagement in a large urban initiative, BMC Public Health, 23(1), DOI: 10.1186/s12889-023-15860-z.

59. You Y. et al. (2024). Saturation effects of the relationship between physical exercise and systemic immune inflammation index in the short-sleep population: a cross-sectional study, BMC Public Health, 24(1), DOI: 10.1186/s12889-024-19432-7.

60. Tran L.T. et al. (2024). The prevalence of gambling and problematic gambling: a systematic review and meta-analysis, Lancet Public Health, 9(8), p. e594-e613, DOI: 10.1016/S2468-2667(24)00126-9.

61. Heymans M.W. and Twisk J. W.R. (2022). Handling missing data in clinical research, Journal of Clinical Epidemiology, 151, p. 185–188, DOI: 10.1016/j.jclinepi.2022.08.016.

62. Braun V. and Clarke V. (2024). Supporting best practice in reflexive thematic analysis reporting in Palliative Medicine: A review of published research and introduction to the Reflexive Thematic Analysis Reporting Guidelines (RTARG), Palliative Medicine, 38(6), p. 608–616, DOI: 10.1177/02692163241234800.

63. Schunemann H.J. et al. (2022). GRADE guidance 35: update on rating imprecision for assessing contextualized certainty of evidence and making decisions, Journal of Clinical Epidemiology, 150, p. 225–242, DOI: 10.1016/j.jclinepi.2022.07.015.

64. Denz R., Klaaßen-Mielke R. and Timmesfeld N. (2023). A comparison of different methods to adjust survival curves for confounders. Statistics in Medicine, 42(10), p. 1461–1479. DOI: 10.1002/sim.9681.

65. Fusaroli et al. (2024). The REporting of A Disproportionality Analysis for DrUg Safety Signal Detection Using Individual Case Safety Reports in PharmacoVigilance (READUS-PV): Explanation and Elaboration, Drug Safety, 47(6), p. 585–599, DOI: 10.1007/s40264-024-01423-7.

66. Fusaroli et al. (2024). The Reporting of a Disproportionality Analysis for Drug Safety Signal Detection Using Individual Case Safety Reports in PharmacoVigilance (READUS-PV): Development and Statement, Drug Safety, 47(6), p. 575–584, DOI: 10.1007/s40264-024-01421-9.

67. Ding C. et al. (2022). Global, regional, and national burden and attributable risk factors of neurological disorders: The Global Burden of Disease study 1990– 2019, Frontiers in Public Health, 10, DOI: 10.3389/fpubh.2022.952161.

68. Ye J. et al. (2023). Association between the weight-adjusted waist index and stroke: a cross-sectional study, BMC Public Health, 23(1), DOI: 10.1186/s12889-023-16621-8.