Analysis of the dynamics of the prevalence of tobacco smoking and the incidence of malignant neoplasms in the Russian Federation in 2011–2021

Tobacco is an important risk factor for malignant neoplasms (MN). The article provides an analysis of the incidence of MN for 2011–2021 in the Russian Federation among men and women with different levels of tobacco smoking. Materials and methods. The analysis includes the incidence of cancer of the trachea, bronchi and lung (TBLC), laryngeal cancer (LC) (tobacco is a high risk factor), liver cancer (a low risk). Time series of standardized indicators of morbidity per 100 thousand population for 2011–2021 were analyzed. with the calculation of linear trend models. The influence of the smoking prevalence on the morbidity dynamics was assessed by comparing the morbidity trends in periods characterized by an increase and decrease in smoking among men and women, taking into account the 5-year latent period of the development of MN (2011–2017, 2018–2021). Results. In 1990–2013, the prevalence of smoking steadily decreased among men and significantly increased among women. After the adoption in 2013 of Federal Anti-Tobacco Law, smoking among women, as well as among men, began to steadily decline. In 2011–2017, there was a decrease in the incidence of TBLC, LC among men and an increase among women. In 2018–2021 there was the same downward trend among men and women. The incidence of liver cancer among men and women increased during 2011–2021. Conclusion. The incidence of TBLC, LC is significantly associated with the smoking prevalence. A decrease in the smoking prevalence among the population may lead to a decrease in the incidence of tobacco-related MN.

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